Which Lottery Ticket To Buy Direct

: $1.00 cost, 1-in-5 chance to win $12.00 (Net average: $1.40 ).Knowing which is which is valuable because it shifts your expected outcome from a random average ($1.45) to the higher-yield option ($1.50).

While Pinker uses it as a metaphor, the logic applies to actual lotteries and decision theory: which lottery ticket to buy

: Different games have different "expected values" based on ticket price, prize pool, and odds of winning. : $1.00 cost